Looking around in Greenbelt, it is clear that there are fewer people wearing masks and that the comfort level with meeting others has increased since a good fraction of the community has been vaccinated. Unfortunately, however, the number of new cases in the 20770 zip code is noticeably on the rise. The trend began a few weeks ago – like popcorn popping – with the odd case or two after periods with just the occasional isolated individual or zero cases. But the pattern in the last few weeks is much more concerning. For our Greenbelt population of about 25,000, the count of cases from August 2 to 9 is the equivalent of 120 cases per week per 100k population. This is well above the CDC definition of a “high” transmission rate.
The graph accompanying this article is based on data downloaded from Maryland.gov (opendata.maryland.gov/Health-and-Human-Services/MD-COVID-19-Cases-by-ZIP-Code/ntd2-dqpx). In it, the last two weeks show the noticeable jump upward in local cases. For several weeks the average hovered around zero or very close to zero, but the most recent seven-day running average shows an average of 4.6 new cases per day. This is up from one or two cases per week at the end of June into early July, to something more like 30 cases per week now – rates more than double that of May. From July 31 through August 5, the number of new cases each day were 3, 7, 3, 3, 10, 3, 3, respectively, for a total of 32. Since the pandemic began, the cumulative number of cases in 20770 is 2,108.
There is no information available to say whether these are Delta-variant cases or if the individuals are very sick. It doesn’t say if they had been vaccinated or if they have been hospitalized. But it is definitely a cautionary note to our residents to keep their guard up. Consider wearing a mask in public again even if not mandated, evaluate attending crowded gatherings and pay attention to handwashing and distancing.