The message of this article is simple. Anybody feeling symptoms that could be attributed to Covid should both immediately get tested and should stay isolated until they know what’s up. Covid-19 isn’t over and even with vaccinations there remains vulnerability.
The story began on Friday, March 25, when an individual started feeling unwell. On Saturday, March 26, the New Deal held an event and this person, despite the New Deal’s stated policies and all the advisories on the topic, nonetheless attended. The person tested positive for Covid-19 the next day, Sunday, March 27.
New Deal patrons received an email and a series of Facebook updates last week acknowledging that attendees at the event had tested positive. The Café notes that it has at all times endeavored to keep its patrons safe and correspondents on its Facebook page state explicitly that they feel the Café bears no blame for an individual’s decision that risked the lives of others.
Exponential Growth
Discussion with New Deal President Michael Hartman indicates that there is more now known about the situation. Two Saturday attendees who had sat near the infected person reported their Tuesday positive tests to the Café on Wednesday and the New Deal notified its patrons, prompting several who were feeling not-so-great to get a test. Subsequently, as members reported in, a total of seven additional positive tests came to light – all connected with attendance at either the Saturday, March 26 or Tuesday, March 29 Café events.
Café patrons commenting on Facebook congratulated the Café on its openness, noting that many businesses would have just kept the problem quiet. The New Deal has reiterated its policies – encouraging masks and requesting those feeling unwell to stay home.
A Miniature Bubble
The progression of the cases, from one, to two more, to the seven additional cases known to the Café is a classic example of an exponential cascade of cases. It is an example in miniature of how one person’s indiscretion can, in a matter of a few days, create a bubble of cases. Fortunately, so far, the cases seem to be mild thanks to the vaccinated status of the affected individuals.
March Local Stats
March showed the lowest consistent new case values for our ZIP code and Prince George’s County since the disease first arrived with a vengeance about two years ago. For March, the daily counts of new cases varied between zero and two, though in the last few days of the month, the average of new 20770 ZIP code cases was trending upward slightly – with more two-case days than earlier. Whether this is a trend or merely a minor variation remains to be seen. In fact, the uptick may specifically be due to the cases discussed earlier in this article.
County Trends are Down
In the county, where more data are available, a similar trend shows all indicators in the low range – percentage of positive tests, new cases and hospital admissions. It is to be expected that averages will bounce around when ‘doubling’ means going from one to two cases and small related groups of people, like families (or New Deal patrons), who spend time together all catch it at the same time.
Second Boosters
Second booster shots are now available to all those 50 or over and to younger immuno-compromised individuals. Shots are available at several nearby sites. See coronavirus.maryland.gov/pages/vaccine to find a vaccination site; enter a ZIP code, address or place name and move the distance slider down to 5 miles or less to get a list of the nearby pharmacies, hospitals/clinics or primary care/urgent care sites offering vaccines.